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Back in 2018, a mere eight words to energize the party's annual gathering demonstrating the party was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. Although not exactly soaring oratory, the words met with rapturous applause as most of the hall rose in an impromptu ovation.

When the noise subsided, the then-Brexit spokesman, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses having such an effect. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out staying in the EU". But context is everything.

During that deeply polarized period in 2018, straying from the prepared script like this was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise leave supporters in key constituencies over the Europhile sentiments of his party. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who championed the party's base against the leadership he would later replace.

The Evolution of Stance and Closed Debates

In the years since, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. An early move after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the Brexit issue had been settled by the 2019 general election. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” commitments that forbade re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.

Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in key seats, even if survey data suggests many of them have died or changed their minds.

A Lid That Rattles on the EU

Yet, it’s now the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled party leader. While EU relations may not be the boiling pot in UK politics, the cap which was firmly shut for five years is beginning to rattle again.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up their language about the devastation caused by Brexit has inflicted on Britain's economic standing. It’s a useful stick to criticize Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was his primary goal and remains his only real achievement.

Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has resulted in an economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, dwarfs the micro-mitigation so far offered by ministers. The PM's much-touted re-set deal agreed with Brussels last summer offers economic benefits measured in low decimal points.

Internal Pressure & Ambitious Proposals

Rachel Reeves is one of those trying to overcome entrenched Home Office resistance to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling program for young people allowing youths can move between Britain and Europe for work or study.

David Lammy muses openly regarding the clear advantages of being in an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, last week supported an opposition proposal on customs union membership.

Although the Europe minister, the minister in charge of UK-EU relations, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, maintains the firm boundaries are still in place, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. A proposal would be to declaring the commencement of negotiations now for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after Labour won a fresh mandate.

The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Doubts

Yet, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water on the idea by warning rejoining a European customs area would “unravel” the commercial agreements with America, which he views as signature achievements of his government.

Reportedly that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, stemming from several key concerns.

1. First, he believes a customs pact is now significantly more difficult because his ministers actively diverging from European rules in numerous sectors, including the environment.
2. Secondly, the exorbitant price set for the UK to join a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse of negotiations has convinced UK negotiators that European nations are less interested in offering favorable terms with Britain than in demonstrating that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Lastly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is viewed by key advisors in Downing Street as grounds for the UK to maintain distance from Europe.

An Alarming Strategy and Strategic Calculations

This bizarre and terrifying American strategy paper asserts Europe faces “civilizational erasure” because of Muslim migration. It includes a single mention of the UK, placed beside a suggestion that the US government will intervene in British politics to encourage the growth of “patriotic” parties.

However, instead of deciding that this makes America an unreliable partner, the government is worried that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by endangering fragile US military support for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Succession Chatter and The Echo from the Past

This situation brings us back to 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not a pitch to become leader but simply an attempt to preserve the “option” of remain being on the ballot paper. Indeed, back then, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he currently seems to reject.

Observers within Downing Street note that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate in any leadership election, is among a clutch of senior ministers signaling they desire greater ambition on Europe.

Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another probable runner in a contest for the top job, maintain she won’t discuss her position regarding a customs pact as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Obvious Danger & A Prudent Memory

The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out significant moves towards a close relationship, he allows rivals to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters are to be found.

It would be wise of him to recall the effect just a few words had on his career in 2018. Potential pathways for a major proposal on Europe that the prime minister should not “rule out”; he should prise them open personally, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.