🔗 Share this article

Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate

The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. They writes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.

Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."

Request for Wider Dialogue

Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."